Immobile Pollsters Concerned By The Cell-Only Crowd

The rapid growth of the cell phone industry has disrupted several things along its way – when was the last time you saw a phone booth? – and now the Center for Media Research says cell phones may pose a particular problem for the telephone survey industry.

The research brief, released Wednesday, provides an interesting take on just one of the problems facing modern-day polling practices: a large, and growing, segment of the population have eschewed landlines for cell phones. In general, telephone surveys are conducted via landline; several issues prevent polling firms from accurately or effectively contacting respondents over a cellular connection, including the federal law that prohibits auto-dialing a cell number.

As a result, the numbers being generated by much of the survey research community may be flawed. At the very least, the field is trending towards less accuracy.

Why? Because, the 13% of U.S. households with a cell phone in lieu of a landline tend to skew younger, are less likely to own a home, and are more ethnically diverse. That demographic combination, when excluded from a survey, can swing the results significantly, on everything from social policy and political affiliation to market research meant to examine technological savvy.

At this year’s annual meeting of the American Association for Public Opinion Research, one speaker asserted that the “cell-only� segment of society could reach 25% by the end of 2008. Suffice to say, the pollsters of America are scrambling for a solution.